Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.460266 0.531078 0.608193 0.698282 0.800508 0.912766 1.045245
2025-08-24 0.335180 0.430450 0.544518 0.690552 0.871884 1.088930 1.367641
2025-08-31 0.258333 0.359590 0.489713 0.667915 0.904150 1.204916 1.614919
2025-09-07 0.227021 0.337175 0.486965 0.703345 1.005270 1.408515 1.984065
2025-09-14 0.187430 0.295463 0.450158 0.684688 1.027342 1.504906 2.214788
2025-09-21 0.156919 0.261266 0.417895 0.665979 1.043727 1.590592 2.433275
2025-09-28 0.133583 0.234018 0.391498 0.651166 1.061749 1.676978 2.656258
2025-10-05 0.120917 0.221717 0.386047 0.666851 1.125855 1.834706 2.995361
2025-10-12 0.113433 0.216840 0.391494 0.699717 1.218812 2.042372 3.425195
2025-10-19 0.104171 0.207433 0.387975 0.716724 1.286584 2.214424 3.810306
2025-10-26 0.094538 0.195935 0.379297 0.723481 1.336944 2.360966 4.163345
2025-11-02 0.084954 0.183142 0.366667 0.721517 1.371311 2.482389 4.481844
2025-11-09 0.075317 0.169133 0.350575 0.712247 1.393080 2.586084 4.781791
2025-11-16 0.066964 0.156579 0.335829 0.703963 1.415899 2.693436 5.096461
2025-11-23 0.058155 0.141722 0.314705 0.680891 1.408573 2.745928 5.316837
2025-11-30 0.056170 0.141521 0.323121 0.716950 1.516653 3.014416 5.943568
2025-12-07 0.049416 0.129486 0.305442 0.697960 1.515294 3.079995 6.201406
2025-12-14 0.043506 0.118515 0.288673 0.678917 1.511700 3.140297 6.452257
2025-12-21 0.038615 0.109252 0.274520 0.663840 1.514510 3.212422 6.729408
2025-12-28 0.036390 0.106375 0.274523 0.679805 1.583353 3.418358 7.278925
2026-01-04 0.035444 0.106695 0.282000 0.713257 1.692067 3.710699 8.016410
2026-01-11 0.033556 0.104210 0.282475 0.730566 1.766886 3.938824 8.638638
2026-01-18 0.031237 0.100182 0.278696 0.737443 1.818987 4.123199 9.182643